The NCAA D3 tournament places 64 teams into 4 quadrants of 16. After
two rounds, each quadrant produces 4 Sweet 16 teams that play at a
single
sectional host site. The NCAA prefers the highest
seed to host, but the 500-mile rule means teams
500+ miles away require a flight (paid by NCAA). To minimize
flights, a lower seed may host if it keeps more teams within driving
distance. This report enumerates all
possible 4-team sectionals
per quadrant (accounting for tournament results), calculates their
probability using efficiency-based win models, and determines the
likely host and flight count for each scenario.
Probability of each team reaching every tournament round,
calculated by propagating efficiency-based win probabilities
through the full bracket tree. All games assumed neutral-site. R32
= Round of 32, S16 = Sweet 16, E8 = Elite 8, FF = Final Four,
Champ = Championship Game, Win = Win Title.
Easiest Path (1-seeds)
Scranton
Bottom Left — 92.8% Win
Hardest Path (1-seeds)
Washington & Lee
Bottom Right — 0.0% Win
Overall Favorite
(1) Scranton
Bottom Left — 92.8% Win
Full Tournament Path Probabilities
Sum of Win%: 100.00% (sanity check ≈ 100%)
#
Seed
Team
Quadrant
R32
S16
E8
FF
Champ
Win
1
(1)
Scranton 🏠
Bottom Left
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
92.8%
2
(2)
Denison 🏠
Bottom Right
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
7.2%
3
(1)
NYU 🏠
Top Left
100%
100%
100%
100%
0.000%
0.000%
4
(16)
Maine-Farmington
Top Left
-
-
-
-
-
-
5
(8)
Messiah
Top Left
100%
-
-
-
-
-
6
(9)
Cortland
Top Left
-
-
-
-
-
-
7
(4)
Hardin-Simmons 🏠
Top Left
100%
100%
-
-
-
-
8
(13)
Austin College
Top Left
-
-
-
-
-
-
9
(5)
Claremont-Mudd-Scripps ✈️
Top Left
-
-
-
-
-
-
10
(12)
Whitman ✈️
Top Left
100%
-
-
-
-
-
11
(3)
UW-La Crosse
Top Left
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
12
(14)
LaGrange ✈️
Top Left
-
-
-
-
-
-
13
(6)
Carroll 🏠
Top Left
100%
-
-
-
-
-
14
(11)
DePauw
Top Left
-
-
-
-
-
-
15
(2)
Bowdoin 🏠
Top Left
100%
-
-
-
-
-
16
(15)
Emmanuel
Top Left
-
-
-
-
-
-
17
(7)
Southern Maine
Top Left
100%
100%
-
-
-
-
18
(10)
Johnson & Wales (RI)
Top Left
-
-
-
-
-
-
19
(1)
UW-Oshkosh 🏠
Top Right
100%
100%
100%
100%
0.000%
0.000%
20
(16)
Webster
Top Right
-
-
-
-
-
-
21
(8)
Wisconsin Lutheran
Top Right
100%
-
-
-
-
-
22
(9)
St. Mary's (MN)
Top Right
-
-
-
-
-
-
23
(4)
WashU
Top Right
100%
100%
-
-
-
-
24
(13)
SUNY Geneseo
Top Right
-
-
-
-
-
-
25
(5)
Ohio Wesleyan 🏠
Top Right
100%
-
-
-
-
-
26
(12)
DeSales
Top Right
-
-
-
-
-
-
27
(3)
UW-Whitewater 🏠
Top Right
100%
-
-
-
-
-
28
(14)
Transylvania
Top Right
-
-
-
-
-
-
29
(6)
Chicago
Top Right
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
30
(11)
Gustavus Adolphus
Top Right
-
-
-
-
-
-
31
(2)
Hope 🏠
Top Right
100%
100%
-
-
-
-
32
(15)
Penn State-Behrend
Top Right
-
-
-
-
-
-
33
(7)
Illinois Wesleyan
Top Right
100%
-
-
-
-
-
34
(10)
Washington & Jefferson
Top Right
-
-
-
-
-
-
35
(1)
Washington & Lee 🏠
Bottom Right
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
36
(16)
St. Mary's (MD)
Bottom Right
-
-
-
-
-
-
37
(8)
Gettysburg
Bottom Right
-
-
-
-
-
-
38
(9)
Christopher Newport
Bottom Right
100%
-
-
-
-
-
39
(4)
Bethel 🏠
Bottom Right
100%
100%
-
-
-
-
40
(13)
Millsaps ✈️
Bottom Right
-
-
-
-
-
-
41
(5)
UW-Platteville
Bottom Right
-
-
-
-
-
-
42
(12)
Coe
Bottom Right
100%
-
-
-
-
-
43
(3)
John Carroll 🏠
Bottom Right
100%
100%
-
-
-
-
44
(14)
TCNJ
Bottom Right
-
-
-
-
-
-
45
(6)
SUNY New Paltz
Bottom Right
100%
-
-
-
-
-
46
(11)
Immaculata
Bottom Right
-
-
-
-
-
-
47
(15)
Southern Virginia
Bottom Right
-
-
-
-
-
-
48
(7)
Trine
Bottom Right
100%
-
-
-
-
-
49
(10)
Shenandoah
Bottom Right
-
-
-
-
-
-
50
(16)
Framingham St.
Bottom Left
-
-
-
-
-
-
51
(8)
Otterbein
Bottom Left
100%
-
-
-
-
-
52
(9)
Randolph-Macon
Bottom Left
-
-
-
-
-
-
53
(4)
Bates 🏠
Bottom Left
100%
100%
-
-
-
-
54
(13)
Merchant Marine
Bottom Left
-
-
-
-
-
-
55
(5)
Smith
Bottom Left
100%
-
-
-
-
-
56
(12)
Union (NY)
Bottom Left
-
-
-
-
-
-
57
(3)
Concordia Moorhead 🏠
Bottom Left
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
58
(14)
UW-Superior
Bottom Left
-
-
-
-
-
-
59
(6)
Ripon
Bottom Left
100%
-
-
-
-
-
60
(11)
UW-River Falls
Bottom Left
-
-
-
-
-
-
61
(2)
Johns Hopkins 🏠
Bottom Left
100%
100%
-
-
-
-
62
(15)
Hunter
Bottom Left
-
-
-
-
-
-
63
(7)
Baldwin Wallace
Bottom Left
100%
-
-
-
-
-
64
(10)
William Paterson
Bottom Left
-
-
-
-
-
-
Pod Difficulty Rankings (by Avg Efficiency Margin)
Higher average EM = tougher pod. Teams in harder pods face
stronger opponents in the first two rounds.
#
Quadrant
Pod
Avg EM
Teams
1
Bottom Left
Pod A
+26.6
(1) Scranton 🏠(8) Otterbein(9) Randolph-Macon(16) Framingham St.
2
Bottom Left
Pod B
+25.2
(4) Bates 🏠(5) Smith(12) Union (NY)(13) Merchant Marine
3
Bottom Right
Pod A
+25.0
(1) Washington & Lee 🏠(8) Gettysburg(9) Christopher Newport(16) St. Mary's (MD)
4
Top Right
Pod D
+24.4
(2) Hope 🏠(7) Illinois Wesleyan(10) Washington & Jefferson(15) Penn State-Behrend
5
Top Right
Pod C
+23.9
(3) UW-Whitewater 🏠(6) Chicago(11) Gustavus Adolphus(14) Transylvania
6
Top Left
Pod D
+23.8
(2) Bowdoin 🏠(7) Southern Maine(10) Johnson & Wales (RI)(15) Emmanuel
(4) Hardin-Simmons 🏠(5) Claremont-Mudd-Scripps ✈️(12) Whitman ✈️(13) Austin College
Quadrant Difficulty Rankings
Average EM of all 16 teams in each quadrant. Harder quadrants
reduce championship probability for everyone in them.
#
Quadrant
Avg EM
1
Top Right (UW-Oshkosh)
+23.7
2
Bottom Left (Scranton)
+23.1
3
Bottom Right (Washington & Lee)
+22.3
4
Top Left (NYU)
+21.0
Opponent-Based Path Difficulty
How tough is each team's bracket draw,
independent of the team itself? For each round, this
shows the
expected opponent Adjusted Efficiency Margin (adjEM), weighted by the probability each potential opponent reaches
that round. Higher EM = tougher expected opponent. The
Total sums all remaining rounds — a team with a
high total faces the hardest gauntlet regardless of its own
strength. Unlike Win%, which rewards being dominant, this metric
purely measures the opponents in your path.
Hardest Path (Overall)
(2) Denison
Bottom Right — Total: +195.4
Easiest Path (Overall)
(1) Scranton
Bottom Left — Total: +164.7
Hardest Path (1-Seeds)
Scranton
Bottom Left — Total: +164.7
Easiest Path (1-Seeds)
Scranton
Bottom Left — Total: +164.7
2 Remaining Teams — Path Difficulty by Round
#
Seed
Team
Quadrant
R32
S16
E8
FF
Champ
Total
1
(2)
Denison 🏠
Bottom Right
+31.5
+32.9
+34.6
+40.2
+56.2
+195.4
2
(1)
Scranton 🏠
Bottom Left
+26.9
+29.6
+23.7
+50.5
+34.0
+164.7
Tournament Bracket Map
All 64 bracket teams plotted by location. Colors indicate quadrant
assignment. Solid borders = hosts 🏠, dashed borders = flyers ✈️.
Click any marker for team details. Click quadrant names in the
legend to filter.
Sweet 16 / Sectionals
Sectional Semifinal matchups — hosted at top remaining seeds
Top Left(1) NYU 🏠
vs
(4) Hardin-Simmons ✈️FINAL 103-61(3) UW-La Crosse ✈️
vs
(7) Southern MaineFINAL 66-45
Top Right(1) UW-Oshkosh 🏠
vs
(4) WashUFINAL 64-43(6) Chicago
vs
(2) HopeFINAL 55-52
Bottom Right(1) Washington & Lee 🏠
vs
(4) Bethel ✈️FINAL 75-67(3) John Carroll
vs
(2) DenisonFINAL 86-67
Bottom Left(1) Scranton 🏠
vs
(4) BatesFINAL 76-59(3) Concordia Moorhead ✈️
vs
(2) Johns HopkinsFINAL 64-59
4 teams must fly to sectional sites:
Hardin-Simmons, UW-La Crosse, Bethel, Concordia
Moorhead
Elite 8 / Sectional Finals
Sectional Championship matchups — winners advance to the
Final Four
Top Left(1) NYU 🏠
vs
(3) UW-La Crosse ✈️FINAL 72-47
Top Right(1) UW-Oshkosh 🏠
vs
(6) ChicagoFINAL 73-56
Bottom Right(1) Washington & Lee 🏠
vs
(2) DenisonFINAL 77-64
Bottom Left(1) Scranton 🏠
vs
(3) Concordia Moorhead ✈️FINAL 67-42
Sweet 16 Head-to-Head
34 games this season between remaining teams — 16 of 16
teams involved
Records vs S16 Field
Seed
Team
Record
(2)
Denison
5-0
(1)
Scranton
3-0
(1)
NYU
6-1
(4)
Bethel
4-1
(1)
UW-Oshkosh
5-2
(2)
Hope
2-1
(4)
Bates
1-1
(1)
Washington & Lee
1-1
(4)
WashU
2-3
(3)
Concordia Moorhead
2-4
(3)
UW-La Crosse
2-5
(6)
Chicago
1-6
(2)
Johns Hopkins
0-1
(7)
Southern Maine
0-2
(4)
Hardin-Simmons
0-3
(3)
John Carroll
0-3
Game Log
Date
Winner
Pts
Loser
Pts
Margin
03/13
(1) NYU
103
(4) Hardin-Simmons
61
+42
01/10
(4) WashU
68
(6) Chicago
39
+29
02/18
(1) UW-Oshkosh
61
(3) UW-La Crosse
35
+26
03/14
(1) NYU
72
(3) UW-La Crosse
47
+25
03/14
(1) Scranton
67
(3) Concordia Moorhead
42
+25
11/07
(2) Hope
82
(3) UW-La Crosse
61
+21
03/13
(3) UW-La Crosse
66
(7) Southern Maine
45
+21
03/13
(1) UW-Oshkosh
64
(4) WashU
43
+21
03/19
(2) Denison
82
(1) UW-Oshkosh
61
+21
02/20
(1) NYU
82
(4) WashU
62
+20
03/13
(2) Denison
86
(3) John Carroll
67
+19
03/14
(1) UW-Oshkosh
73
(6) Chicago
56
+17
01/17
(2) Denison
58
(3) John Carroll
41
+17
03/13
(1) Scranton
76
(4) Bates
59
+17
01/23
(1) NYU
77
(4) WashU
64
+13
03/14
(2) Denison
77
(1) Washington & Lee
64
+13
02/28
(4) WashU
64
(6) Chicago
52
+12
01/25
(1) NYU
67
(6) Chicago
55
+12
11/25
(4) Bethel
52
(3) Concordia Moorhead
44
+8
03/13
(1) Washington & Lee
75
(4) Bethel
67
+8
03/19
(1) Scranton
60
(1) NYU
52
+8
02/28
(4) Bethel
62
(3) Concordia Moorhead
55
+7
01/07
(1) UW-Oshkosh
55
(3) UW-La Crosse
48
+7
02/14
(2) Denison
57
(3) John Carroll
50
+7
01/24
(4) Bethel
59
(3) Concordia Moorhead
53
+6
12/19
(4) Bethel
63
(3) UW-La Crosse
57
+6
02/11
(2) Hope
63
(4) Hardin-Simmons
57
+6
02/22
(1) NYU
57
(6) Chicago
52
+5
03/13
(3) Concordia Moorhead
64
(2) Johns Hopkins
59
+5
11/25
(4) Bates
70
(7) Southern Maine
66
+4
02/27
(3) UW-La Crosse
52
(1) UW-Oshkosh
49
+3
03/13
(6) Chicago
55
(2) Hope
52
+3
11/08
(1) UW-Oshkosh
60
(6) Chicago
58
+2
12/29
(3) Concordia Moorhead
67
(4) Hardin-Simmons
65
+2
Top Left
#1 NYU2.00 expected flights
Bracket Pods
Pod A(1) NYU 🏠
vs
(16) Maine-FarmingtonFINAL 108-44(8) Messiah
vs
(9) CortlandFINAL 64-58
Pod B(4) Hardin-Simmons 🏠
vs
(13) Austin CollegeFINAL 73-51(5) Claremont-Mudd-Scripps ✈️
vs
(12) Whitman ✈️FINAL 70-54
Pod C(3) UW-La Crosse
vs
(14) LaGrange ✈️FINAL 78-52(6) Carroll 🏠
vs
(11) DePauwFINAL 74-67
Pod D(2) Bowdoin 🏠
vs
(15) EmmanuelFINAL 51-45(7) Southern Maine
vs
(10) Johnson & Wales (RI)FINAL 62-46
Sweet 16 Probabilities
Pod
Seed
Team
Sweet 16 %
Bar
A
(1)
NYU 🏠
100%
(16)
Maine-Farmington
ELIM
(8)
Messiah
ELIM
(9)
Cortland
ELIM
B
(4)
Hardin-Simmons 🏠
100%
(13)
Austin College
ELIM
(5)
Claremont-Mudd-Scripps ✈️
ELIM
(12)
Whitman ✈️
ELIM
C
(3)
UW-La Crosse
100%
(14)
LaGrange ✈️
ELIM
(6)
Carroll 🏠
ELIM
(11)
DePauw
ELIM
D
(7)
Southern Maine
100%
(2)
Bowdoin 🏠
ELIM
(15)
Emmanuel
ELIM
(10)
Johnson & Wales (RI)
ELIM
Who Hosts? (when they make the Sweet 16)
Team
Host Prob
Host if in S16
Bar
NYU
100.0%
100%
All 1 Possible Sweet 16 Sectionals
#
Prob
Cum.
Sweet 16 Teams
Host
Flights
Flying
1
100.00%
100.0%
(1) NYU 🏠(4) Hardin-Simmons 🏠(3) UW-La Crosse(7) Southern Maine
NYU
2
Hardin-Simmons 🏠, UW-La Crosse
Top Right
#1 UW-Oshkosh0.00 expected flights
Bracket Pods
Pod A(1) UW-Oshkosh 🏠
vs
(16) WebsterFINAL 53-37(8) Wisconsin Lutheran
vs
(9) St. Mary's (MN)FINAL 65-47
Pod B(4) WashU
vs
(13) SUNY GeneseoFINAL 65-53(5) Ohio Wesleyan 🏠
vs
(12) DeSalesFINAL 68-53
Pod C(3) UW-Whitewater 🏠
vs
(14) TransylvaniaFINAL 70-65(6) Chicago
vs
(11) Gustavus AdolphusFINAL 60-44
Pod D(2) Hope 🏠
vs
(15) Penn State-BehrendFINAL 103-65(7) Illinois Wesleyan
vs
(10) Washington & JeffersonFINAL 61-53
Sweet 16 Probabilities
Pod
Seed
Team
Sweet 16 %
Bar
A
(1)
UW-Oshkosh 🏠
100%
(16)
Webster
ELIM
(8)
Wisconsin Lutheran
ELIM
(9)
St. Mary's (MN)
ELIM
B
(4)
WashU
100%
(13)
SUNY Geneseo
ELIM
(5)
Ohio Wesleyan 🏠
ELIM
(12)
DeSales
ELIM
C
(6)
Chicago
100%
(3)
UW-Whitewater 🏠
ELIM
(14)
Transylvania
ELIM
(11)
Gustavus Adolphus
ELIM
D
(2)
Hope 🏠
100%
(15)
Penn State-Behrend
ELIM
(7)
Illinois Wesleyan
ELIM
(10)
Washington & Jefferson
ELIM
Who Hosts? (when they make the Sweet 16)
Team
Host Prob
Host if in S16
Bar
UW-Oshkosh
100.0%
100%
All 1 Possible Sweet 16 Sectionals
#
Prob
Cum.
Sweet 16 Teams
Host
Flights
Flying
1
100.00%
100.0%
(1) UW-Oshkosh 🏠(4) WashU(6) Chicago(2) Hope 🏠
UW-Oshkosh
0
-
Bottom Right
#1 Washington & Lee1.00 expected flights
Bracket Pods
Pod A(1) Washington & Lee 🏠
vs
(16) St. Mary's (MD)FINAL 73-44(8) Gettysburg
vs
(9) Christopher NewportFINAL 74-62
Pod B(4) Bethel 🏠
vs
(13) Millsaps ✈️FINAL 81-73(5) UW-Platteville
vs
(12) CoeFINAL 69-51
Pod C(3) John Carroll 🏠
vs
(14) TCNJFINAL 84-49(6) SUNY New Paltz
vs
(11) ImmaculataFINAL 67-51
Pod D(2) Denison 🏠
vs
(15) Southern VirginiaFINAL 82-47(7) Trine
vs
(10) ShenandoahFINAL 90-45
Sweet 16 Probabilities
Pod
Seed
Team
Sweet 16 %
Bar
A
(1)
Washington & Lee 🏠
100%
(16)
St. Mary's (MD)
ELIM
(8)
Gettysburg
ELIM
(9)
Christopher Newport
ELIM
B
(4)
Bethel 🏠
100%
(13)
Millsaps ✈️
ELIM
(5)
UW-Platteville
ELIM
(12)
Coe
ELIM
C
(3)
John Carroll 🏠
100%
(14)
TCNJ
ELIM
(6)
SUNY New Paltz
ELIM
(11)
Immaculata
ELIM
D
(2)
Denison 🏠
100%
(15)
Southern Virginia
ELIM
(7)
Trine
ELIM
(10)
Shenandoah
ELIM
Who Hosts? (when they make the Sweet 16)
Team
Host Prob
Host if in S16
Bar
Washington & Lee
100.0%
100%
All 1 Possible Sweet 16 Sectionals
#
Prob
Cum.
Sweet 16 Teams
Host
Flights
Flying
1
100.00%
100.0%
(1) Washington & Lee 🏠(4) Bethel 🏠(3) John Carroll 🏠(2) Denison 🏠
Washington & Lee
1
Bethel 🏠
Bottom Left
#1 Scranton1.00 expected flights
Bracket Pods
Pod A(1) Scranton 🏠
vs
(16) Framingham St.FINAL 104-39(8) Otterbein
vs
(9) Randolph-MaconFINAL 60-45
Pod B(4) Bates 🏠
vs
(13) Merchant MarineFINAL 71-57(5) Smith
vs
(12) Union (NY)FINAL 73-55
Pod C(3) Concordia Moorhead 🏠
vs
(14) UW-SuperiorFINAL 73-61(6) Ripon
vs
(11) UW-River FallsFINAL 84-81
Pod D(2) Johns Hopkins 🏠
vs
(15) HunterFINAL 100-59(7) Baldwin Wallace
vs
(10) William PatersonFINAL 75-51