Preseason Efficiency 2026-27

Projected adjusted offense, defense, margin, and tempo for every Division III (D3) women's basketball team in 2026-27. Barthag is the win probability against an average D3 team. The projection is fitted on 2024-25 to 2025-26.

Team

Conference

Theme

Sections

Projected ratings, 2026-27 412

Sorted by projected adjEm, best first. 412 of 412 teams shown. Click a header to sort by that column.

adjO and adjD are points per 100 possessions against an average D3 opponent, so a lower adjD is better. adjEm is adjO minus adjD. Ret min, Ret pts, and Ret ast are the shares of 2025-26 minutes, points, and assists on the 2026-27 roster.

Rank	Team	Conf	Proj adjEm	Proj adjO	Proj adjD	Proj adjT	Barthag	Prior adjEm	Change	Ret min	Ret pts	Ret ast	New coach
1	NYU	UAA	+42.6	110.7	68.1	78.2	0.909	49.7	-7.1	85%	79%	83%
2	Scranton	LAND	+41.2	108.2	67.0	63.7	0.906	54.2	-13.0	66%	69%	58%	Yes
3	Denison	NCAC	+37.3	103.5	66.1	80.6	0.892	37.6	-0.3	88%	89%	90%
4	Smith	NEWMAC	+37.3	108.2	71.0	67.1	0.880	35.4	+1.9	93%	95%	96%
5	WashU	UAA	+35.3	108.1	72.8	66.9	0.866	30.7	+4.6	82%	88%	82%
6	Hope	MIAA	+32.6	105.1	72.5	73.0	0.852	35.2	-2.6	80%	81%	79%
7	Trine	MIAA	+31.5	103.1	71.6	65.2	0.848	31.5	-0.0	84%	86%	84%
8	Otterbein	OAC	+31.1	102.6	71.5	61.7	0.846	26.9	+4.2	99%	99%	99%
9	UW-Oshkosh	WIAC	+30.6	102.6	72.1	55.8	0.842	38.1	-7.5	44%	53%	57%	Yes
10	Wisconsin Lutheran	NACC	+29.4	100.3	70.9	68.4	0.837	28.8	+0.6	88%	89%	82%
11	Johns Hopkins	CC	+29.2	98.3	68.9	76.2	0.842	36.7	-7.5	42%	53%	35%
12	Bowdoin	NESCAC	+27.4	100.6	73.3	63.0	0.817	31.7	-4.3	62%	68%	64%
13	Gettysburg	CC	+26.1	98.6	72.6	73.8	0.810	25.4	+0.7	89%	87%	89%
14	Wartburg	ARC	+25.9	93.8	67.8	69.1	0.822	22.4	+3.5	89%	95%	78%
15	Johnson & Wales (RI)	CNE	+25.7	98.4	72.8	78.5	0.806	20.6	+5.1	80%	87%	86%
16	Emory	UAA	+25.5	101.9	76.5	73.8	0.795	23.9	+1.6	75%	81%	86%
17	Ripon	MWC	+25.5	98.8	73.3	74.9	0.804	27.1	-1.6	69%	73%	79%
18	Gustavus Adolphus	MIAC	+24.5	96.3	71.8	71.0	0.800	18.7	+5.8	98%	100%	98%
19	Christopher Newport	C2C	+24.4	95.9	71.6	81.9	0.800	25.1	-0.7	82%	83%	71%
20	UW-Whitewater	WIAC	+24.3	95.6	71.2	70.7	0.800	23.5	+0.8	79%	82%	82%
21	Chicago	UAA	+24.0	96.1	72.0	64.3	0.796	27.9	-3.9	63%	68%	61%
22	Concordia Moorhead	MIAC	+23.4	103.3	80.0	65.8	0.771	23.3	+0.1	61%	69%	55%
23	Baldwin Wallace	OAC	+22.6	95.1	72.6	67.3	0.781	29.2	-6.6	60%	59%	62%
24	McDaniel	CC	+22.0	95.1	73.2	62.8	0.776	26.9	-4.9	77%	69%	76%
25	St. Mary's (MN)	MIAC	+21.9	99.9	77.9	70.6	0.763	20.4	+1.5	65%	77%	66%
26	UW-La Crosse	WIAC	+21.8	98.1	76.2	68.8	0.767	26.9	-5.1	57%	60%	62%
27	Hardin-Simmons	ASC	+21.2	98.0	76.7	70.0	0.760	24.9	-3.7	72%	72%	63%
28	Bates	NESCAC	+20.1	96.9	76.9	71.0	0.749	29.3	-9.2	61%	54%	66%
29	Whitman	NWC	+19.9	92.2	72.3	67.9	0.760	13.3	+6.6	100%	100%	100%
30	Emmanuel	GNAC	+19.9	89.2	69.2	81.2	0.768	15.0	+4.9	91%	93%	92%
31	DePauw	NCAC	+19.9	98.4	78.5	62.1	0.745	28.0	-8.1	55%	56%	51%
32	Merchant Marine	SKY	+19.8	95.9	76.0	71.1	0.749	19.9	-0.1	77%	77%	77%
33	Cortland	SUNYAC	+19.8	95.8	76.0	59.4	0.750	21.5	-1.7	76%	76%	68%
34	TCNJ	NJAC	+18.8	101.8	82.9	68.4	0.724	17.3	+1.5	67%	76%	72%
35	Redlands	SCIAC	+18.4	96.6	78.2	76.2	0.730	21.8	-3.4	58%	63%	61%
36	Calvin	MIAA	+18.3	93.7	75.2	67.3	0.738	20.8	-2.5	80%	73%	80%
37	Ohio Wesleyan	NCAC	+18.1	94.8	76.7	74.0	0.731	23.7	-5.6	58%	59%	60%
38	Washington & Lee	ODAC	+18.0	95.2	77.2	73.7	0.729	34.6	-16.6	44%	37%	35%
39	Case Western	UAA	+17.8	98.1	80.2	72.8	0.720	16.1	+1.7	72%	71%	75%
40	Rochester Tech	LL	+17.8	97.8	80.1	59.8	0.720	16.7	+1.1	70%	77%	69%
41	Washington & Jefferson	PAC	+17.4	95.6	78.2	71.4	0.722	24.7	-7.3	65%	57%	64%
42	Rhode Island College	LEC	+17.1	93.8	76.8	71.5	0.721	16.4	+0.7	86%	79%	92%
43	Williams	NESCAC	+16.6	96.0	79.4	68.1	0.710	13.0	+3.6	87%	87%	87%
44	Houghton	E8	+16.5	96.5	80.0	77.5	0.707	15.6	+0.9	86%	83%	77%
45	Southern Maine	LEC	+16.5	97.6	81.1	67.9	0.705	27.6	-11.1	48%	51%	42%	Yes
46	Bethel	MIAC	+16.5	96.4	79.9	72.9	0.708	22.7	-6.2	49%	56%	41%
47	Hartford	CNE	+16.3	94.0	77.6	64.7	0.713	9.7	+6.6	94%	95%	97%
48	Mt. Union	OAC	+16.2	95.4	79.2	71.8	0.707	19.4	-3.2	80%	74%	85%	Yes
49	Randolph-Macon	ODAC	+16.1	94.7	78.5	62.5	0.707	18.6	-2.5	71%	68%	73%
50	Marietta	OAC	+16.1	95.8	79.6	83.6	0.705	9.6	+6.5	95%	95%	98%
51	Transylvania	HCAC	+16.1	94.2	78.2	67.6	0.707	24.0	-7.9	56%	54%	50%
52	Misericordia	MACF	+15.9	92.9	76.9	69.3	0.708	8.0	+7.9	95%	98%	96%
53	Rochester	UAA	+15.6	91.0	75.4	75.2	0.708	18.0	-2.4	69%	70%	61%
54	Millsaps	SAA	+15.6	98.2	82.5	72.3	0.694	13.4	+2.2	77%	74%	91%
55	Coe	ARC	+15.6	96.5	81.0	63.1	0.696	23.3	-7.7	64%	59%	49%
56	Clark	NEWMAC	+15.5	92.1	76.6	75.1	0.705	12.7	+2.8	73%	78%	81%
57	Immaculata	AEC	+15.1	96.2	81.1	74.6	0.692	14.9	+0.2	70%	72%	74%
58	Tufts	NESCAC	+15.0	99.3	84.2	67.0	0.686	12.6	+2.4	92%	92%	88%	Yes
59	Catholic	LAND	+14.9	93.6	78.7	75.7	0.694	19.1	-4.2	70%	68%	56%
60	Susquehanna	LAND	+14.8	97.5	82.7	70.6	0.685	24.2	-9.4	60%	53%	52%
61	Hamilton	NESCAC	+14.7	92.7	78.1	76.5	0.693	15.2	-0.5	73%	74%	67%
62	Shenandoah	ODAC	+14.6	93.5	78.9	66.1	0.690	15.8	-1.2	72%	73%	64%
63	Carnegie Mellon	UAA	+14.5	93.5	79.0	64.2	0.690	21.6	-7.1	64%	56%	66%
64	St. Vincent	PAC	+14.2	95.0	80.9	63.1	0.682	17.9	-3.7	68%	62%	76%
65	Aurora	NACC	+14.1	94.2	80.2	79.0	0.681	20.1	-6.0	56%	56%	52%
66	Batten	ODAC	+14.0	93.9	79.9	71.5	0.682	6.4	+7.6	97%	98%	97%
67	Puget Sound	NWC	+14.0	90.7	76.7	69.8	0.688	12.8	+1.2	88%	80%	89%
68	Illinois Wesleyan	CCIW	+13.8	91.9	78.1	78.7	0.684	27.0	-13.2	47%	41%	35%
69	WPI	NEWMAC	+13.6	89.8	76.2	58.0	0.684	8.5	+5.1	82%	87%	82%
70	Ohio Northern	OAC	+13.6	90.1	76.6	64.5	0.683	5.2	+8.4	97%	99%	99%
71	North Central (IL)	CCIW	+13.6	97.6	84.1	72.0	0.670	8.1	+5.5	86%	90%	84%
72	Lawrence	MWC	+13.1	86.6	73.4	69.4	0.685	12.2	+0.9	68%	71%	72%
73	Asbury	CCS	+13.1	96.0	83.1	79.1	0.665	6.2	+6.9	90%	94%	89%
74	SUNY Canton	SUNYAC	+13.0	94.0	81.0	75.5	0.669	9.6	+3.4	77%	81%	77%
75	Amherst	NESCAC	+13.0	91.1	78.2	68.2	0.674	20.9	-7.9	53%	52%	45%
76	SUNY Geneseo	E8	+13.0	92.6	79.6	62.6	0.671	19.4	-6.4	56%	58%	39%
77	John Carroll	NCAC	+13.0	95.0	81.9	68.5	0.668	33.4	-20.4	28%	20%	26%
78	Cal Lutheran	SCIAC	+12.9	91.2	78.4	74.1	0.673	18.4	-5.5	69%	62%	62%
79	St. Mary's (MD)	UEC	+12.9	90.5	77.6	79.7	0.674	14.7	-1.8	80%	74%	70%
80	Chapman	SCIAC	+12.9	95.0	82.2	69.3	0.665	8.4	+4.5	74%	82%	72%
81	UW-Eau Claire	WIAC	+12.8	94.1	81.4	75.7	0.664	14.4	-1.6	55%	43%	62%	Yes
82	Colorado College	SCAC	+12.7	90.3	77.6	69.8	0.672	15.7	-3.0	60%	62%	57%
83	Mary Washington	C2C	+12.6	84.5	71.9	74.0	0.682	6.0	+6.6	93%	93%	94%
84	Endicott	CNE	+12.6	94.9	82.4	70.5	0.662	7.9	+4.7	72%	80%	80%
85	Springfield	NEWMAC	+12.5	94.9	82.4	61.3	0.661	15.9	-3.4	62%	58%	63%	Yes
86	DeSales	MACF	+12.2	87.3	75.2	64.5	0.670	20.7	-8.5	47%	47%	42%
87	Maryville	SAA	+11.8	93.8	82.1	66.0	0.653	7.7	+4.1	87%	84%	89%
88	Hendrix	SCAC	+11.7	92.7	81.1	71.5	0.653	2.2	+9.5	77%	87%	79%
89	Elmhurst	CCIW	+11.6	97.9	86.4	71.8	0.643	8.6	+3.0	75%	75%	87%
90	UW-Stevens Point	WIAC	+11.5	91.9	80.4	68.8	0.653	19.7	-8.2	67%	57%	52%
91	Trinity (CT)	NESCAC	+11.5	92.2	80.7	70.9	0.653	15.4	-3.9	49%	58%	37%
92	Salisbury	C2C	+11.4	94.6	83.3	74.1	0.647	5.9	+5.5	85%	85%	94%
93	Maine-Farmington	NAC	+11.2	87.1	75.8	77.5	0.657	4.7	+6.5	77%	86%	78%
94	Linfield	NWC	+11.0	91.5	80.5	69.6	0.646	17.8	-6.8	46%	46%	52%
95	MSOE	NACC	+10.8	91.2	80.4	63.0	0.645	14.4	-3.6	74%	65%	70%
96	Brooklyn College	CUNYAC	+10.7	88.6	77.9	86.6	0.647	14.3	-3.6	56%	55%	65%
97	Colby	NESCAC	+10.6	92.3	81.7	61.3	0.641	13.4	-2.8	67%	69%	63%	Yes
98	William Paterson	NJAC	+10.6	89.7	79.1	73.8	0.645	19.8	-9.2	52%	43%	60%
99	Hollins	ODAC	+10.6	84.3	73.8	79.1	0.653	5.5	+5.1	79%	85%	75%
100	Franklin	HCAC	+10.5	94.0	83.4	79.7	0.637	13.6	-3.1	70%	62%	75%
101	NC Wesleyan	USAC	+10.2	85.7	75.5	85.3	0.645	1.6	+8.6	94%	98%	93%
102	Montclair St.	NJAC	+10.1	92.6	82.6	73.7	0.632	9.7	+0.4	63%	68%	62%
103	Middlebury	NESCAC	+10.0	86.0	76.0	67.9	0.642	9.8	+0.2	64%	67%	69%
104	Rutgers-Camden	NJAC	+9.9	87.7	77.8	79.3	0.637	3.1	+6.8	93%	93%	94%
105	MIT	NEWMAC	+9.7	86.7	77.0	72.9	0.637	8.3	+1.4	73%	74%	71%
106	Augustana	CCIW	+9.6	89.6	79.9	76.3	0.631	8.5	+1.1	71%	70%	72%
107	Dickinson	CC	+9.6	87.6	78.0	69.7	0.633	13.8	-4.2	64%	60%	56%
108	Hamline	MIAC	+9.5	87.8	78.3	70.3	0.631	16.5	-7.0	48%	47%	48%
109	Carroll	CCIW	+9.3	98.0	88.6	71.1	0.616	23.8	-14.5	57%	39%	66%	Yes
110	Pomona-Pitzer	SCIAC	+9.3	92.3	83.1	69.2	0.621	11.7	-2.4	67%	63%	66%
111	Western New England	CNE	+9.3	95.1	85.9	63.3	0.618	14.0	-4.7	46%	54%	35%
112	University of New England	CNE	+9.1	88.8	79.7	68.6	0.624	6.6	+2.5	71%	78%	58%
113	Maine-Maritime	NAC	+8.9	90.7	81.9	71.0	0.618	14.3	-5.4	56%	48%	72%
114	Skidmore	LL	+8.9	84.8	76.1	71.2	0.626	7.2	+1.7	79%	77%	74%
115	Brevard	USAC	+8.8	95.4	86.6	77.8	0.613	14.7	-5.9	51%	50%	49%
116	Buena Vista	ARC	+8.7	92.4	83.8	79.1	0.615	5.0	+3.7	66%	77%	57%
117	Southwestern	SAA	+8.7	90.5	81.8	73.1	0.617	5.5	+3.2	85%	81%	85%
118	Bethany Luth	UMAC	+8.7	88.7	80.0	69.3	0.619	3.5	+5.2	76%	81%	82%
119	Trinity (TX)	SAA	+8.6	94.0	85.4	79.9	0.611	14.2	-5.6	55%	51%	57%
120	East Texas Baptist	ASC	+8.5	89.8	81.2	68.6	0.616	13.4	-4.9	47%	50%	50%
121	Babson	NEWMAC	+8.4	90.9	82.4	72.3	0.613	11.9	-3.5	61%	60%	53%
122	Bridgewater St.	MASCAC	+8.3	87.7	79.4	77.6	0.616	6.5	+1.8	73%	74%	65%
123	Claremont-Mudd-Scripps	SCIAC	+8.3	90.5	82.2	74.3	0.612	16.3	-8.0	49%	46%	42%
124	Berry	SAA	+8.3	84.5	76.2	64.8	0.619	8.1	+0.2	61%	60%	76%
125	Albion	MIAA	+8.2	92.5	84.2	72.4	0.610	8.4	-0.2	54%	63%	45%
126	Centre	SAA	+8.2	91.8	83.6	72.0	0.608	10.2	-2.0	76%	68%	68%
127	Cedar Crest	UEC	+8.2	84.6	76.3	74.6	0.619	-1.0	+9.2	100%	100%	100%
128	Widener	MACC	+8.1	91.5	83.3	80.7	0.608	12.8	-4.7	55%	54%	52%
129	Luther	MWC	+8.0	92.5	84.4	76.4	0.607	2.2	+5.8	67%	79%	65%
130	Swarthmore	CC	+7.9	85.0	77.0	70.4	0.614	-0.8	+8.7	88%	94%	88%
131	Alma	MIAA	+7.9	94.7	86.9	71.1	0.601	3.6	+4.3	78%	78%	80%
132	Keene St.	LEC	+7.8	87.8	79.9	80.5	0.609	6.3	+1.5	62%	68%	62%
133	Wittenberg	NCAC	+7.8	89.0	81.2	70.0	0.607	4.4	+3.4	76%	78%	74%
134	St. Benedict	MIAC	+7.8	88.8	80.9	73.1	0.607	8.7	-0.9	65%	64%	65%
135	Penn State-Abington	UEC	+7.8	88.0	80.1	80.3	0.608	6.1	+1.7	69%	72%	66%
136	Mass-Boston	LEC	+7.6	87.4	79.8	76.7	0.606	2.2	+5.4	77%	86%	63%
137	UW-River Falls	WIAC	+7.6	88.9	81.3	68.0	0.604	16.0	-8.4	53%	47%	46%
138	Concordia (WI)	NACC	+7.6	83.4	75.7	68.1	0.611	-1.3	+8.9	98%	99%	98%
139	UW-Platteville	WIAC	+7.6	88.2	80.6	67.1	0.604	19.6	-12.0	43%	37%	29%
140	Brandeis	UAA	+7.5	90.0	82.4	68.0	0.602	14.0	-6.5	49%	42%	65%
141	Benedictine	NACC	+7.5	93.6	86.1	74.0	0.598	6.1	+1.4	69%	72%	62%
142	Whittier	SCIAC	+7.5	91.2	83.7	64.7	0.599	4.7	+2.8	70%	72%	64%
143	Rowan	NJAC	+7.4	86.1	78.7	74.1	0.605	7.4	+0.0	62%	65%	61%
144	SUNY Cobleskill	SUNYAC	+7.1	84.0	76.8	71.1	0.605	-2.1	+9.2	62%	61%	64%
145	Eastern Connecticut	LEC	+7.1	89.8	82.6	73.0	0.596	-0.4	+7.5	77%	83%	87%
146	Bridgewater (VA)	ODAC	+7.1	87.7	80.5	64.2	0.600	16.1	-9.0	64%	47%	64%
147	Bethany (WV)	PAC	+6.9	91.1	84.3	79.7	0.591	9.5	-2.6	64%	63%	73%	Yes
148	Austin College	SCAC	+6.8	83.9	77.0	66.2	0.599	5.3	+1.5	73%	71%	77%
149	Wooster	NCAC	+6.8	91.6	84.9	74.5	0.588	-0.0	+6.8	77%	83%	83%
150	UW-Superior	UMAC	+6.4	85.1	78.8	68.3	0.590	0.6	+5.8	59%	68%	55%
151	Notre Dame (MD)	UEC	+6.2	84.8	78.6	73.5	0.588	-3.4	+9.6	100%	100%	100%
152	Texas Lutheran	SCAC	+6.2	92.6	86.4	72.3	0.581	15.2	-9.0	49%	44%	38%
153	Union (NY)	LL	+6.2	90.6	84.5	73.0	0.583	15.7	-9.5	37%	37%	35%
154	Nazareth	E8	+6.1	88.1	82.1	75.0	0.584	17.8	-11.7	39%	36%	26%
155	Cornell	MWC	+6.1	82.3	76.3	69.5	0.590	1.2	+4.9	70%	77%	72%
156	St. Thomas (TX)	SCAC	+6.0	91.6	85.6	72.9	0.580	9.4	-3.4	53%	55%	44%	Yes
157	Guilford	ODAC	+6.0	88.0	81.9	84.1	0.583	13.3	-7.3	39%	37%	39%
158	Webster	SLIAC	+5.9	85.0	79.1	71.4	0.585	1.3	+4.6	52%	55%	47%
159	SUNY Oneonta	SUNYAC	+5.8	85.4	79.6	68.9	0.583	1.8	+4.0	87%	82%	89%
160	Mt. St. Mary	SKY	+5.7	90.6	84.9	72.4	0.576	6.1	-0.4	71%	68%	78%	Yes
161	La Verne	SCIAC	+5.6	88.1	82.6	64.8	0.577	-4.7	+10.3	99%	98%	99%
162	Elizabethtown	LAND	+5.5	91.6	86.2	71.2	0.572	15.6	-10.1	44%	39%	34%
163	Arcadia	MACF	+5.5	87.8	82.3	66.5	0.575	12.3	-6.8	50%	46%	41%
164	Roger Williams	CNE	+5.4	87.8	82.4	66.5	0.574	5.8	-0.4	67%	65%	66%
165	Framingham St.	MASCAC	+5.1	90.6	85.4	76.8	0.569	4.4	+0.7	58%	62%	63%
166	Ursinus	CC	+5.1	88.7	83.6	69.5	0.570	11.7	-6.6	57%	51%	46%
167	Peace	USAC	+5.1	88.2	83.1	71.5	0.570	-2.3	+7.4	83%	86%	89%
168	St. Catherine	MIAC	+4.9	86.3	81.4	71.2	0.569	-0.9	+5.8	82%	89%	84%	Yes
169	Drew	LAND	+4.9	85.6	80.7	71.2	0.569	4.5	+0.4	66%	66%	65%
170	SUNY New Paltz	NJAC	+4.8	82.5	77.6	74.2	0.571	18.3	-13.5	56%	39%	39%
171	Emerson	NEWMAC	+4.8	89.1	84.3	75.2	0.565	3.8	+1.0	77%	73%	70%
172	Rose-Hulman	HCAC	+4.8	87.8	83.1	74.6	0.566	-0.9	+5.7	90%	92%	90%	Yes
173	Carthage	CCIW	+4.7	93.2	88.5	66.6	0.560	13.1	-8.4	44%	40%	42%
174	Penn College	UEC	+4.6	84.8	80.2	72.3	0.566	1.0	+3.6	77%	75%	82%
175	Roanoke	ODAC	+4.6	89.7	85.0	71.3	0.563	5.2	-0.6	70%	70%	67%	Yes
176	Wheaton (IL)	CCIW	+4.5	85.6	81.0	70.3	0.564	3.2	+1.3	76%	72%	74%
177	St. Norbert	NACC	+4.5	89.2	84.8	67.1	0.560	14.0	-9.5	50%	40%	44%
178	Vassar	LL	+4.3	84.3	79.9	65.9	0.563	1.9	+2.4	64%	69%	62%
179	St. Joseph's (LI)	SKY	+4.3	78.3	74.0	67.3	0.566	-2.1	+6.4	83%	83%	89%
180	Simpson (IA)	ARC	+4.2	91.1	86.9	74.3	0.556	8.8	-4.6	53%	49%	49%
181	Messiah	MACC	+4.0	88.8	84.8	61.9	0.555	17.6	-13.6	56%	37%	43%
182	St. Scholastica	MIAC	+4.0	90.5	86.4	68.5	0.554	6.9	-2.9	45%	58%	35%	Yes
183	Manhattanville	SKY	+3.9	87.4	83.5	71.1	0.554	14.7	-10.8	34%	30%	38%
184	Wellesley	NEWMAC	+3.9	87.4	83.6	63.2	0.553	-6.2	+10.1	100%	100%	100%
185	Plattsburgh St.	SUNYAC	+3.8	81.7	78.0	73.7	0.556	3.1	+0.7	63%	61%	74%
186	Pfeiffer	USAC	+3.7	85.3	81.6	75.2	0.552	-1.7	+5.4	69%	74%	78%
187	Fredonia	SUNYAC	+3.6	86.1	82.4	74.8	0.550	2.1	+1.5	84%	79%	87%	Yes
188	Suffolk	CNE	+3.4	83.6	80.1	69.5	0.549	-4.3	+7.7	100%	100%	100%	Yes
189	Muhlenberg	CC	+3.4	85.0	81.6	71.3	0.548	3.2	+0.2	71%	75%	60%	Yes
190	Moravian	LAND	+3.4	89.6	86.2	72.9	0.546	2.8	+0.6	81%	77%	80%	Yes
191	Ithaca	LL	+3.4	89.3	85.9	70.0	0.546	1.0	+2.4	71%	77%	70%	Yes
192	Stevenson	MACC	+3.3	82.8	79.5	73.2	0.548	1.3	+2.0	60%	68%	70%	Yes
193	Minn-Morris	UMAC	+3.3	90.6	87.3	79.7	0.545	-3.0	+6.3	73%	80%	74%
194	Rensselaer	LL	+3.2	84.2	81.1	68.4	0.545	6.9	-3.7	68%	62%	66%	Yes
195	Stockton	NJAC	+3.2	85.9	82.7	66.0	0.546	5.1	-1.9	57%	57%	54%
196	Piedmont	CCS	+3.0	84.8	81.9	78.8	0.542	4.7	-1.7	53%	55%	52%
197	Brockport St.	E8	+3.0	89.6	86.7	89.2	0.540	9.3	-6.3	46%	41%	52%
198	George Fox	NWC	+2.8	88.4	85.6	66.9	0.538	6.6	-3.8	44%	44%	54%
199	Husson	NAC	+2.6	87.3	84.8	75.3	0.535	-2.3	+4.9	69%	77%	60%
200	Chatham	PAC	+2.3	85.1	82.8	68.9	0.533	15.3	-13.0	13%	11%	9%
201	UW-Stout	WIAC	+2.3	90.1	87.9	76.4	0.530	12.0	-9.7	42%	42%	33%	Yes
202	Franklin & Marshall	CC	+2.3	84.5	82.2	67.1	0.532	8.5	-6.2	66%	56%	61%	Yes
203	Marymount	AEC	+2.2	85.1	82.9	74.1	0.531	-1.8	+4.0	73%	76%	68%
204	Lebanon Val	MACF	+2.2	81.8	79.7	64.9	0.531	15.2	-13.0	36%	25%	32%
205	Stevens	MACF	+2.1	88.9	86.9	69.6	0.528	13.0	-10.9	33%	34%	33%	Yes
206	Allegheny	PAC	+2.0	86.0	84.0	73.8	0.528	2.8	-0.8	62%	60%	58%
207	Grove City	PAC	+1.8	83.6	82.0	74.9	0.524	6.3	-4.5	63%	55%	51%
208	St. Lawrence	LL	+1.7	89.5	87.8	70.7	0.523	3.8	-2.1	56%	56%	70%	Yes
209	Univ Ozarks	SCAC	+1.5	90.3	88.9	76.8	0.520	-0.4	+1.9	60%	64%	61%
210	La Roche	AMCC	+1.4	84.7	83.3	79.3	0.520	5.6	-4.2	65%	56%	54%
211	St. Joseph's (ME)	GNAC	+1.3	88.3	87.0	69.6	0.518	6.7	-5.4	50%	44%	55%
212	Albright	MACC	+1.3	82.4	81.1	75.6	0.518	-1.1	+2.4	53%	63%	61%	Yes
213	Coast Guard	NEWMAC	+1.2	90.1	88.8	73.7	0.516	4.7	-3.5	49%	49%	44%
214	Oglethorpe	SAA	+1.1	86.9	85.8	75.4	0.515	10.7	-9.6	46%	35%	48%
215	UC Santa Cruz	C2C	+1.1	88.2	87.1	66.3	0.514	0.5	+0.6	80%	76%	55%
216	Hanover	HCAC	+1.0	85.6	84.5	75.2	0.514	5.9	-4.9	48%	46%	46%
217	FDU Florham	MACF	+0.8	84.4	83.7	77.2	0.510	-9.8	+10.6	99%	99%	100%
218	Howard Payne	ASC	+0.7	86.6	85.8	69.4	0.510	2.0	-1.3	58%	56%	39%
219	York (PA)	MACC	+0.7	81.6	80.9	66.3	0.510	1.7	-1.0	69%	66%	72%	Yes
220	Macalester	MIAC	+0.7	84.4	83.6	71.2	0.510	-9.6	+10.3	88%	93%	92%
221	Connecticut College	NESCAC	+0.5	85.4	85.0	65.6	0.507	7.6	-7.1	65%	55%	55%	Yes
222	PSU-Altoona	AMCC	+0.4	88.1	87.7	71.1	0.505	3.2	-2.8	54%	50%	60%
223	Wesleyan (CT)	NESCAC	+0.3	84.6	84.3	66.6	0.504	-2.1	+2.4	75%	66%	79%
224	Randolph Col	ODAC	+0.0	81.3	81.3	70.0	0.500	-5.4	+5.4	75%	75%	75%
225	Illinois Col	MWC	-0.2	87.9	88.1	83.5	0.498	0.6	-0.8	61%	60%	52%
226	Central (IA)	ARC	-0.2	87.0	87.2	72.1	0.497	-1.2	+1.0	51%	57%	49%
227	St. Olaf	MIAC	-0.3	81.8	82.0	68.1	0.496	-11.2	+10.9	98%	99%	100%
228	Mt. Aloysius	AMCC	-0.3	85.7	86.0	75.2	0.497	-9.7	+9.4	90%	92%	91%
229	Martin Luther	UMAC	-0.3	83.3	83.5	74.9	0.497	-7.3	+7.0	84%	84%	84%
230	McMurry	ASC	-0.5	84.0	84.6	80.3	0.493	11.4	-11.9	15%	12%	9%
231	Muskingum	OAC	-0.8	87.8	88.6	80.8	0.490	1.8	-2.6	45%	50%	37%
232	John Jay	CUNYAC	-0.8	81.1	81.8	91.2	0.489	-6.1	+5.3	74%	76%	67%
233	Waynesburg	PAC	-0.8	87.0	87.9	81.8	0.489	1.9	-2.7	56%	52%	53%
234	Grinnell	MWC	-0.9	83.7	84.7	68.1	0.487	-3.2	+2.3	62%	63%	64%
235	Caltech	SCIAC	-1.0	84.4	85.5	68.8	0.486	-14.1	+13.1	100%	100%	100%
236	Carleton	MIAC	-1.1	87.6	88.7	68.6	0.486	-12.7	+11.6	96%	99%	98%
237	LaGrange	CCS	-1.1	86.4	87.5	74.2	0.485	6.5	-7.6	41%	31%	51%
238	Kalamazoo	MIAA	-1.2	80.7	81.9	72.5	0.483	-7.8	+6.6	68%	72%	83%
239	Capital	OAC	-1.2	85.9	87.1	67.8	0.484	4.8	-6.0	64%	53%	58%	Yes
240	Delaware Val	MACF	-1.2	85.8	87.1	73.9	0.482	-1.8	+0.6	57%	56%	61%
241	Penn State-Behrend	AMCC	-1.3	90.0	91.3	76.4	0.482	10.0	-11.3	43%	32%	32%
242	New England College	GNAC	-1.5	85.6	87.2	69.7	0.478	-6.1	+4.6	65%	68%	72%
243	Lasell	GNAC	-1.5	83.2	84.8	76.7	0.478	-3.0	+1.5	69%	63%	73%
244	Adrian	MIAA	-1.5	85.3	86.8	75.6	0.479	1.3	-2.8	44%	41%	44%
245	Westminster (PA)	PAC	-1.6	82.9	84.4	73.7	0.478	-7.7	+6.1	88%	88%	92%	Yes
246	Lynchburg	ODAC	-1.9	83.1	85.1	73.1	0.473	6.2	-8.1	49%	43%	42%	Yes
247	Westfield St.	MASCAC	-2.0	78.7	80.6	103.1	0.471	-7.1	+5.1	80%	81%	66%
248	Ramapo	NJAC	-2.0	78.8	80.7	67.4	0.471	-13.3	+11.3	100%	100%	100%
249	Whitworth	NWC	-2.2	81.3	83.5	71.7	0.469	-7.6	+5.4	83%	84%	85%	Yes
250	Norwich	GNAC	-2.3	84.4	86.7	75.2	0.468	-7.9	+5.6	65%	70%	72%
251	Knox	MWC	-2.3	85.4	87.7	87.8	0.468	5.3	-7.6	54%	43%	40%
252	Berea	HCAC	-2.4	85.4	87.7	75.1	0.467	3.7	-6.1	48%	40%	70%	Yes
253	Mt. St. Joseph	HCAC	-2.4	82.7	85.1	67.1	0.466	5.8	-8.2	59%	47%	54%	Yes
254	Farmingdale	SKY	-2.4	79.7	82.2	78.5	0.463	-4.4	+2.0	72%	68%	63%
255	Hunter	CUNYAC	-2.4	84.9	87.4	81.4	0.467	7.1	-9.5	46%	32%	49%
256	Millikin	CCIW	-2.7	85.1	87.7	70.4	0.464	-2.8	+0.1	57%	59%	46%
257	Albertus Magnus	GNAC	-2.7	81.8	84.6	75.5	0.461	-14.2	+11.5	100%	100%	100%
258	Washington College	CC	-2.8	79.9	82.7	68.1	0.461	5.9	-8.7	48%	38%	33%
259	St. Mary's (IN)	MIAA	-2.8	86.7	89.6	74.1	0.462	-9.5	+6.7	76%	78%	77%
260	Alfred	E8	-2.9	79.8	82.6	72.5	0.458	-11.0	+8.1	88%	86%	90%
261	Clarkson	LL	-2.9	88.2	91.1	65.7	0.461	-9.3	+6.4	87%	83%	83%
262	Elmira	E8	-3.0	82.1	85.0	70.7	0.459	-3.2	+0.2	59%	57%	55%
263	Oswego St.	SUNYAC	-3.4	81.0	84.3	75.7	0.452	3.7	-7.1	37%	36%	26%
264	Worcester St.	MASCAC	-3.4	84.7	88.2	73.1	0.453	-10.1	+6.7	84%	85%	71%
265	Belhaven	CCS	-3.5	81.3	84.7	90.9	0.451	2.6	-6.1	17%	20%	11%
266	Lewis & Clark	NWC	-3.5	88.2	91.7	74.2	0.454	-11.7	+8.2	89%	93%	89%	Yes
267	Bluffton	HCAC	-3.5	81.7	85.2	71.3	0.450	-0.9	-2.6	54%	50%	49%
268	Edgewood	NACC	-3.6	85.4	89.1	70.7	0.451	-6.3	+2.7	65%	65%	61%
269	Eastern Mennonite	ODAC	-3.6	80.5	84.1	72.7	0.448	-10.8	+7.2	78%	84%	85%	Yes
270	Anderson	HCAC	-3.7	87.9	91.5	81.1	0.452	6.8	-10.5	37%	37%	16%	Yes
271	Methodist	USAC	-3.7	75.7	79.4	79.1	0.444	-11.3	+7.6	75%	76%	85%
272	Occidental	SCIAC	-3.8	85.3	89.1	73.9	0.448	7.3	-11.1	24%	20%	13%
273	Haverford	CC	-3.9	80.2	84.1	75.6	0.444	-1.5	-2.4	65%	55%	80%	Yes
274	Lehman	CUNYAC	-3.9	81.0	84.9	86.5	0.444	-2.5	-1.4	62%	56%	54%
275	Alvernia	MACC	-4.1	77.9	81.9	74.0	0.440	-1.8	-2.3	56%	49%	58%
276	Loras	ARC	-4.4	83.4	87.9	71.0	0.440	1.7	-6.1	41%	35%	42%
277	Alfred St.	SUNYAC	-4.4	78.2	82.6	79.1	0.435	-7.2	+2.8	61%	60%	67%
278	SUNY Purchase	SKY	-4.5	73.7	78.3	88.7	0.430	-10.8	+6.3	84%	82%	76%
279	Neumann	MACC	-4.6	81.2	85.8	69.5	0.436	-5.2	+0.6	66%	60%	62%
280	Dominican	NACC	-4.6	80.1	84.8	72.9	0.434	-13.7	+9.1	85%	86%	88%
281	William Smith	LL	-4.9	79.2	84.0	75.2	0.430	-14.2	+9.3	76%	83%	79%
282	Sewanee	SAA	-5.1	88.7	93.7	75.6	0.436	-8.5	+3.4	72%	67%	76%
283	Oberlin	NCAC	-5.2	81.4	86.6	69.3	0.427	0.2	-5.4	43%	41%	28%
284	Manchester	HCAC	-5.3	84.0	89.3	75.3	0.429	-0.5	-4.8	37%	37%	31%
285	Southern Virginia	USAC	-5.3	85.1	90.4	71.5	0.429	12.3	-17.6	9%	8%	6%	Yes
286	Goucher	LAND	-5.3	78.7	83.9	77.9	0.425	-13.1	+7.8	83%	82%	82%
287	Lancaster Bib	UEC	-5.5	80.2	85.7	70.4	0.423	-13.5	+8.0	88%	84%	90%
288	St. Joseph (CT)	GNAC	-5.5	79.4	84.8	74.6	0.422	-15.8	+10.3	77%	82%	79%
289	Salve Regina	NEWMAC	-5.6	80.3	85.9	81.8	0.422	-3.8	-1.8	65%	53%	66%
290	St. John Fisher	E8	-5.7	80.6	86.3	71.6	0.420	-0.1	-5.6	39%	35%	37%
291	Wilmington	OAC	-5.8	84.7	90.4	75.1	0.423	-12.3	+6.5	80%	72%	79%
292	Mary Hardin-Baylor	ASC	-5.8	82.5	88.4	69.9	0.421	4.3	-10.1	56%	41%	44%	Yes
293	Geneva	PAC	-5.8	85.3	91.2	91.6	0.422	-4.5	-1.3	70%	60%	54%
294	Eastern Univ	MACC	-5.9	78.2	84.1	76.5	0.415	-6.7	+0.8	63%	59%	58%
295	Morrisville St.	SUNYAC	-5.9	79.6	85.6	79.4	0.416	-14.6	+8.7	87%	90%	92%	Yes
296	North Park	CCIW	-5.9	79.4	85.4	69.1	0.416	-10.6	+4.7	85%	83%	79%	Yes
297	St. Joseph's (NY)	SKY	-6.0	82.7	88.7	78.4	0.418	-11.8	+5.8	69%	67%	71%
298	Averett	ODAC	-6.0	77.7	83.8	79.7	0.413	-6.1	+0.1	45%	48%	48%
299	Mt. St. Vincent	SKY	-6.0	75.4	81.4	77.7	0.410	-13.4	+7.4	66%	72%	70%
300	Marywood	MACF	-6.1	83.1	89.1	74.7	0.417	-5.8	-0.3	51%	52%	45%
301	Kenyon	NCAC	-6.2	82.8	89.0	73.9	0.416	-9.3	+3.1	57%	57%	66%
302	Northwestern (MN)	UMAC	-6.4	80.7	87.1	76.3	0.410	-16.1	+9.7	87%	85%	92%
303	Sage	E8	-6.5	78.5	85.1	75.7	0.406	-3.7	-2.8	40%	41%	38%
304	Crown	UMAC	-6.7	76.1	82.7	71.7	0.402	-19.2	+12.5	83%	89%	89%
305	PSU-Harrisburg	UEC	-6.8	80.6	87.4	72.1	0.406	-17.6	+10.8	89%	90%	94%
306	Colby-Sawyer	GNAC	-7.0	83.0	90.1	78.2	0.405	-15.9	+8.9	87%	85%	90%
307	Salem St.	MASCAC	-7.1	76.1	83.3	82.2	0.396	-6.6	-0.5	56%	50%	58%
308	Keuka	E8	-7.3	81.6	88.8	69.1	0.400	-14.4	+7.1	84%	79%	88%
309	Utica	E8	-7.3	83.1	90.3	69.5	0.403	-12.3	+5.0	68%	69%	63%
310	Covenant	CCS	-7.9	75.2	83.2	74.8	0.384	-16.8	+8.9	73%	78%	69%
311	Gwynedd-Mercy	AEC	-8.0	77.2	85.3	77.0	0.385	-11.5	+3.5	61%	63%	55%
312	Earlham	HCAC	-8.3	83.0	91.3	73.1	0.388	-20.2	+11.9	89%	91%	96%
313	Western Connecticut	LEC	-8.4	77.5	86.1	77.9	0.380	-4.7	-3.7	46%	41%	36%
314	Wheaton (MA)	NEWMAC	-8.6	78.2	86.9	74.7	0.379	-10.1	+1.5	63%	59%	56%
315	Hartwick	E8	-8.7	79.2	88.0	74.1	0.379	-16.2	+7.5	86%	80%	85%
316	Pacific	NWC	-8.8	80.3	89.0	70.8	0.380	-0.9	-7.9	46%	39%	35%	Yes
317	Mass-Dartmouth	LEC	-8.8	83.7	92.5	76.5	0.384	-1.2	-7.6	33%	25%	35%
318	Greensboro	USAC	-8.9	75.3	84.2	104.2	0.371	-15.3	+6.4	46%	56%	53%
319	Rhodes	SAA	-8.9	81.9	90.8	73.9	0.380	-7.7	-1.2	46%	50%	44%	Yes
320	Sarah Lawrence	SKY	-9.0	85.1	94.0	77.6	0.384	-11.5	+2.5	54%	55%	52%
321	Hiram	PAC	-9.2	86.3	95.6	73.0	0.383	-10.7	+1.5	70%	63%	78%	Yes
322	Curry	CNE	-9.3	78.1	87.3	73.8	0.370	-16.8	+7.5	77%	77%	73%
323	Thiel	PAC	-9.4	79.5	88.9	79.2	0.370	-22.5	+13.1	94%	97%	96%
324	SUNYIT	E8	-9.4	75.8	85.2	71.9	0.365	-18.6	+9.2	79%	80%	82%
325	Principia	SLIAC	-9.4	81.9	91.4	84.1	0.374	2.3	-11.7	23%	21%	15%	Yes
326	LeTourneau	SCAC	-9.5	79.8	89.3	79.1	0.370	-16.7	+7.2	79%	76%	78%
327	Spalding	SLIAC	-9.6	74.4	84.0	69.7	0.360	-3.6	-6.0	39%	30%	31%
328	Castleton	LEC	-9.8	79.7	89.4	79.6	0.367	-3.9	-5.9	43%	38%	44%	Yes
329	Lyon	SLIAC	-9.9	83.5	93.3	93.6	0.371	-11.4	+1.5	67%	60%	76%	Yes
330	Willamette	NWC	-10.1	83.8	93.9	65.0	0.369	-0.9	-9.2	21%	18%	14%
331	Concordia (TX)	SCAC	-10.2	83.1	93.2	72.4	0.367	-5.3	-4.9	40%	30%	48%
332	Bryn Mawr	CC	-10.2	73.1	83.2	75.1	0.350	-21.9	+11.7	85%	89%	87%
333	Gallaudet	UEC	-10.2	75.4	85.7	75.6	0.354	-19.7	+9.5	92%	92%	76%
334	Augsburg	MIAC	-10.4	82.2	92.6	74.9	0.363	-14.4	+4.0	61%	60%	63%
335	Greenville	SLIAC	-10.4	79.6	90.1	76.1	0.359	-13.3	+2.9	50%	50%	55%
336	Wilkes	LAND	-10.4	73.3	83.8	75.7	0.348	-14.1	+3.7	70%	67%	57%
337	Concordia-Chicago	NACC	-10.4	83.7	94.2	75.7	0.365	-13.9	+3.5	85%	74%	68%
338	King's	MACF	-10.5	80.5	91.1	71.6	0.358	-3.1	-7.4	40%	29%	32%
339	Nebraska Wesleyan	ARC	-10.5	80.1	90.6	68.8	0.359	-19.9	+9.4	75%	76%	85%
340	Elms	GNAC	-11.1	74.2	85.4	82.1	0.341	-20.0	+8.9	70%	74%	75%
341	Thomas (ME)	NAC	-11.5	74.9	86.4	70.8	0.338	-3.5	-8.0	36%	22%	38%
342	Lycoming	LAND	-11.5	76.8	88.3	72.6	0.340	-14.3	+2.8	61%	57%	58%
343	Lakeland	NACC	-11.6	77.8	89.5	78.8	0.341	-8.1	-3.5	51%	40%	43%
344	Meredith	USAC	-11.7	76.6	88.1	72.7	0.340	-21.2	+9.5	82%	81%	86%
345	Huntingdon	CCS	-11.8	73.2	84.9	84.4	0.331	-6.9	-4.9	38%	28%	35%
346	Plymouth St.	LEC	-12.0	80.4	92.3	71.9	0.342	-13.3	+1.3	58%	52%	56%
347	Nichols	CNE	-12.1	74.9	87.0	72.2	0.330	-5.9	-6.2	47%	34%	46%	Yes
348	Regis	GNAC	-12.2	79.1	91.3	80.6	0.337	-10.6	-1.6	52%	42%	53%
349	Dubuque	ARC	-13.1	81.5	94.7	68.8	0.331	-15.6	+2.5	52%	50%	55%
350	Schreiner	ASC	-13.1	77.8	91.0	70.0	0.324	-11.4	-1.7	40%	39%	30%
351	Heidelberg	OAC	-13.1	79.7	92.9	81.4	0.327	-22.4	+9.3	78%	87%	72%	Yes
352	North Central (MN)	UMAC	-13.4	80.8	94.2	76.1	0.326	-9.6	-3.8	36%	34%	23%
353	Wilson	UEC	-14.2	75.6	89.8	83.7	0.308	-16.3	+2.1	55%	53%	44%
354	Buffalo St.	SUNYAC	-14.3	73.3	87.6	80.6	0.301	-18.1	+3.8	61%	62%	44%
355	Juniata	LAND	-14.4	76.7	91.1	73.0	0.307	-11.2	-3.2	38%	33%	30%
356	NVU-Lyndon	NAC	-14.6	76.1	90.6	79.7	0.304	-15.5	+0.9	58%	52%	47%
357	Olivet	MIAA	-14.6	74.5	89.1	77.5	0.300	-15.8	+1.2	55%	48%	53%
358	Blackburn	SLIAC	-14.7	78.8	93.7	92.7	0.307	-22.8	+8.1	57%	67%	52%
359	Gordon	CNE	-14.7	76.0	90.8	78.0	0.302	-23.4	+8.7	76%	75%	75%
360	Hood	MACC	-14.8	69.2	84.0	68.7	0.286	-20.6	+5.8	76%	67%	78%
361	Dallas Univ	SCAC	-15.1	73.0	88.2	72.6	0.291	-18.7	+3.6	50%	54%	39%
362	Pac Lutheran	NWC	-15.5	79.2	94.9	74.7	0.299	-17.0	+1.5	52%	54%	50%	Yes
363	Warren Wilson	C2C	-15.6	75.2	90.9	91.6	0.290	-19.4	+3.8	70%	69%	59%	Yes
364	Centenary (NJ)	AEC	-15.7	79.2	94.8	73.1	0.299	-8.8	-6.9	19%	20%	16%	Yes
365	Beloit	MWC	-16.6	71.7	88.4	79.0	0.272	-20.7	+4.1	67%	59%	63%
366	Salem (NC)	USAC	-17.4	69.3	86.9	75.8	0.256	-26.9	+9.5	71%	68%	82%
367	Baruch	CUNYAC	-17.5	75.8	93.3	80.5	0.272	-21.2	+3.7	65%	60%	71%	Yes
368	SUNY Potsdam	SUNYAC	-17.5	71.7	89.2	76.2	0.262	-18.9	+1.4	75%	63%	67%	Yes
369	Carlow	AMCC	-17.6	75.8	93.5	73.6	0.271	–	–	–	–	–	–
370	PSU-Brandywine	UEC	-17.6	75.8	93.5	73.6	0.271	–	–	–	–	–	–
371	Alverno	C2C	-17.6	75.8	93.5	73.6	0.271	–	–	–	–	–	–
372	Rivier	GNAC	-18.1	71.7	89.8	76.1	0.257	-27.3	+9.2	83%	80%	74%
373	Bard	LL	-18.1	68.2	86.2	70.5	0.248	-23.1	+5.0	70%	69%	63%	Yes
374	Franciscan	PAC	-18.6	75.2	93.6	76.7	0.261	-20.7	+2.1	42%	49%	36%	Yes
375	St. Elizabeth	AEC	-18.8	77.0	95.7	74.2	0.263	-12.7	-6.1	22%	17%	15%
376	MUW	SLIAC	-19.2	74.8	93.9	85.6	0.254	-16.5	-2.7	42%	29%	43%
377	Mitchell	GNAC	-19.4	78.2	97.5	79.0	0.260	-32.3	+12.9	73%	75%	90%
378	Mt. Holyoke	NEWMAC	-19.5	65.6	85.2	76.4	0.226	-24.6	+5.1	73%	63%	65%
379	Lake Forest	MWC	-19.5	73.7	93.3	73.0	0.248	-25.4	+5.9	71%	66%	80%	Yes
380	Westminster (MO)	SLIAC	-19.5	68.2	87.7	76.3	0.233	-12.9	-6.6	13%	15%	13%	Yes
381	Agnes Scott	CCS	-19.8	69.6	89.3	84.2	0.235	-28.9	+9.1	55%	61%	59%
382	Marian	NACC	-20.5	72.2	92.7	78.6	0.235	-25.7	+5.2	75%	67%	75%	Yes
383	Yeshiva	SKY	-20.5	70.7	91.2	78.1	0.231	-30.7	+10.2	74%	79%	77%	Yes
384	Kean	NJAC	-21.3	70.6	91.8	71.6	0.224	-26.8	+5.5	74%	63%	68%
385	Dean	GNAC	-21.5	79.5	101.0	88.0	0.245	-30.5	+9.0	82%	71%	89%
386	Old Westbury	SKY	-22.5	68.5	90.9	77.3	0.207	-36.8	+14.3	90%	90%	92%
387	SUNY Delhi	SUNYAC	-23.4	65.6	88.9	78.0	0.191	-38.5	+15.1	88%	91%	90%
388	Pitt-Greensburg	AMCC	-23.4	70.7	94.0	71.2	0.206	-36.8	+13.4	65%	79%	75%	Yes
389	Keystone	UEC	-23.9	65.3	89.3	77.4	0.185	-36.1	+12.2	91%	91%	92%	Yes
390	City College (NY)	CUNYAC	-24.5	67.1	91.5	77.2	0.187	-37.8	+13.3	85%	85%	82%
391	Hilbert	AMCC	-24.9	69.0	93.9	68.0	0.189	-38.3	+13.4	97%	97%	97%	Yes
392	Monmouth	MWC	-25.5	71.8	97.3	79.2	0.192	-23.7	-1.8	34%	30%	27%	Yes
393	Pitt-Bradford	AMCC	-25.9	68.7	94.6	87.0	0.180	-41.3	+15.4	88%	90%	90%
394	Eureka	SLIAC	-26.2	70.9	96.9	83.8	0.185	-40.3	+14.1	92%	91%	85%
395	Medgar Evers	CUNYAC	-26.4	67.0	93.5	87.0	0.171	-35.0	+8.6	56%	56%	54%
396	Rutgers-Newark	NJAC	-26.8	70.5	97.2	83.5	0.179	-28.7	+1.9	46%	38%	55%	Yes
397	Wentworth Tech	CNE	-26.8	67.5	94.3	66.4	0.171	-42.2	+15.4	72%	86%	62%
398	Cairn	UEC	-27.1	66.4	93.7	84.2	0.165	-35.4	+8.3	72%	69%	51%
399	Maine-Presque Isle	NAC	-27.4	64.3	91.8	80.2	0.157	-41.4	+14.0	85%	90%	69%
400	Pratt Inst	AEC	-27.6	64.6	92.2	72.6	0.157	-34.0	+6.4	72%	58%	69%
401	Illinois Tech	NACC	-27.7	67.6	95.4	66.0	0.165	-31.2	+3.5	41%	34%	44%
402	Mary Baldwin	USAC	-28.2	68.9	97.0	79.6	0.166	-30.6	+2.4	39%	28%	46%
403	NVU-Johnson	NAC	-29.0	66.2	95.3	79.2	0.152	-37.3	+8.3	52%	51%	50%
404	PSU-Berks	UEC	-29.4	66.8	96.2	74.9	0.151	-36.2	+6.8	71%	56%	70%
405	Centenary (LA)	SCAC	-29.4	69.5	98.9	72.9	0.159	-31.6	+2.2	31%	26%	28%
406	Trinity (DC)	IND	-31.6	64.6	96.2	75.2	0.133	-49.2	+17.6	100%	100%	100%
407	Fitchburg St.	MASCAC	-32.5	65.0	97.6	74.1	0.128	-41.2	+8.7	59%	52%	57%
408	Lesley	NAC	-34.9	63.2	98.0	70.8	0.112	-44.5	+9.6	49%	54%	28%
409	York (NY)	CUNYAC	-35.7	54.6	90.4	91.7	0.085	-42.8	+7.1	85%	60%	78%
410	Rockford	NACC	-37.4	63.4	100.7	71.4	0.101	-40.1	+2.7	36%	27%	33%	Yes
411	MA Col Lib Arts	MASCAC	-39.4	57.0	96.4	75.6	0.077	-53.8	+14.4	56%	56%	64%
412	Maranatha Bap	IND	-41.5	58.8	100.4	78.3	0.074	-53.6	+12.1	49%	48%	46%

Carlow, PSU-Brandywine, Alverno: no 2025-26 rating, so the row carries the 10th-percentile projected margin and the mean tempo.

Largest roster-driven gains

Sorted by From roster, largest gain first.

Change is the projected adjEm minus the prior adjEm, and it has two parts. From prior rating is the move a team at that prior adjEm makes with average roster turnover: ratings far from zero move back toward it, so the weakest teams gain and the strongest teams drop whoever returns. From roster is the rest: returning production, transfers, and a coaching change.

Team	Conf	Prior adjEm	Proj adjEm	Change	From prior rating	From roster	Ret pts	Transfer min
WashU	UAA	+30.7	+35.3	+4.6	-8.2	+12.8	88%	11%
Otterbein	OAC	+26.9	+31.1	+4.2	-7.2	+11.4	99%	0%
Smith	NEWMAC	+35.4	+37.3	+1.9	-9.4	+11.3	95%	0%
Gustavus Adolphus	MIAC	+18.7	+24.5	+5.8	-5.1	+10.9	100%	0%
Johnson & Wales (RI)	CNE	+20.6	+25.7	+5.1	-5.6	+10.6	87%	11%
Whitman	NWC	+13.3	+19.9	+6.6	-3.7	+10.3	100%	0%
Hendrix	SCAC	+2.2	+11.7	+9.5	-0.8	+10.3	87%	16%
Misericordia	MACF	+8.0	+15.9	+7.9	-2.3	+10.2	98%	0%
Ohio Northern	OAC	+5.2	+13.6	+8.4	-1.6	+10.0	99%	0%
Caltech	SCIAC	-14.1	-1.0	+13.1	+3.4	+9.7	100%	11%
Denison	NCAC	+37.6	+37.3	-0.3	-10.0	+9.7	89%	0%
Wartburg	ARC	+22.4	+25.9	+3.5	-6.0	+9.6	95%	0%

Largest roster-driven drops

Sorted by From roster, largest drop first.

Team	Conf	Prior adjEm	Proj adjEm	Change	From prior rating	From roster	Ret pts	Transfer min	New coach
Southern Virginia	USAC	+12.3	-5.3	-17.6	-3.4	-14.2	8%	0%	Yes
John Carroll	NCAC	+33.4	+13.0	-20.4	-8.9	-11.6	20%	0%
Principia	SLIAC	+2.3	-9.4	-11.7	-0.9	-10.9	21%	0%	Yes
Westminster (MO)	SLIAC	-12.9	-19.5	-6.6	+3.1	-9.7	15%	0%	Yes
Willamette	NWC	-0.9	-10.1	-9.2	-0.0	-9.2	18%	0%
St. Elizabeth	AEC	-12.7	-18.8	-6.1	+3.0	-9.1	17%	0%
Occidental	SCIAC	+7.3	-3.8	-11.1	-2.1	-8.9	20%	0%
Centenary (NJ)	AEC	-8.8	-15.7	-6.9	+2.0	-8.9	20%	0%	Yes
Lebanon Val	MACF	+15.2	+2.2	-13.0	-4.2	-8.8	25%	0%
Messiah	MACC	+17.6	+4.0	-13.6	-4.8	-8.8	37%	0%
Chatham	PAC	+15.3	+2.3	-13.0	-4.2	-8.8	11%	0%
Mary Hardin-Baylor	ASC	+4.3	-5.8	-10.1	-1.4	-8.7	41%	0%	Yes

Incoming transfers, 2026-27 163

Sorted by value, the transfer's contribution to the destination's projected adjEm, largest first.

A D3 transfer is valued by the share of the origin team's 2025-26 minutes they played, and by the origin's adjEm. A starter from a strong program counts for more.

A transfer from outside D3 is valued by Expected share: the share of the destination's minutes that last season's class of 113 non-D3 transfers went on to play, by level, moved up or down by the gap between the origin team and the destination. Each 10 points of gap moves the expected share +1.0 percentage points. The level averages are two-year college 7.1%, Division II 9.8%, NAIA 8.3%, Division I 10.1%. Origin adjEm for these rows is the origin team's strength on the D3 adjEm scale, fitted from every women's college game in Massey's all-division results. Min share for these rows is the share of the origin team's minutes the player logged in the last season with a published stat line. It is shown for reference and does not enter the value, because it did not predict D3 minutes in last season's class. A dash means no rating or no stat line was found.

No 2025-26 stats line matched these D3 transfers, so they carry no value: Aleyna Sherman, Ame'lle Passee-Diallo, Mary McClintock, Abigail Platt, Kathryn Strong, Sharayah Scott-Cummins.

Player	To	From	Level	Min share	Pts share	Origin adjEm	Expected share	Value
Mary Berg	UW-Eau Claire	UW-Stout	D3	16%	13%	+12.0	–	+3.38
Hannah Vanderzee	SUNY Cobleskill	SUNY New Paltz	D3	14%	13%	+18.3	–	+3.34
Addy Verhagen	UW-Eau Claire	UW-Stout	D3	15%	18%	+12.0	–	+3.32
Diana Burgher	WashU	DePauw	D3	11%	9%	+28.0	–	+3.26
Meagan Schuermann	SUNY Cobleskill	Rhode Island College	D3	14%	21%	+16.4	–	+3.25
Perry Blasetti	Springfield	Western New England	D3	14%	16%	+14.0	–	+3.23
Lauren Cooper	UW-Superior	Hamline	D3	12%	13%	+16.5	–	+2.78
Caroline Orza	Johns Hopkins	Haverford	D3	17%	28%	-1.5	–	+2.71
Tyler Hormazabal	Case Western	Rensselaer	D3	13%	12%	+6.9	–	+2.57
Paige Breuer	Concordia Moorhead	Roanoke	D3	14%	15%	+5.2	–	+2.56
Olivia Witkowski	UW-Oshkosh	UW-Eau Claire	D3	11%	14%	+14.4	–	+2.46
Sydney Esperanza	Webster	Pacific	D3	14%	17%	-0.9	–	+2.30
Taysie Trejo	Hendrix	Concordia (TX)	D3	14%	19%	-5.3	–	+1.98
Brooklynn Birt	UW-Eau Claire	UW-Stout	D3	9%	13%	+12.0	–	+1.93
Juniper Schwartzman	Caltech	Grinnell	D3	11%	8%	-3.2	–	+1.63
Shanna Brown	Johnson & Wales (RI)	Concordia (TX)	D3	11%	22%	-5.3	–	+1.55
Shaelyn Anthony	McMurry	Bethany (WV)	D3	7%	5%	+9.5	–	+1.39
Lauren Walsh	Wesleyan (CT)	Emory	D3	4%	4%	+23.9	–	+1.06
Jiaryatou Cisse	Adrian	Lakeland	D3	8%	7%	-8.1	–	+1.04
Alexis Dockter	McMurry	Willamette	D3	6%	7%	-0.9	–	+0.98
Cameron Froehlich	St. Joseph (CT)	Western Connecticut	D3	7%	4%	-4.7	–	+0.98
Gabby Douglass	Webster	Spalding	D3	6%	8%	-3.6	–	+0.97
Lucy Wilkinson	Wilmington	Franciscan	D3	14%	5%	-20.7	–	+0.96
Gabriella Barrera	Howard Payne	Dallas Univ	D3	11%	16%	-18.7	–	+0.90
Serenity Ritchie	Albright	Hood	D3	12%	15%	-20.6	–	+0.89
Leia Mata	La Verne	Willamette	D3	5%	3%	-0.9	–	+0.83
Kendyll Moore	Guilford	Pfeiffer	D3	5%	5%	-1.7	–	+0.74
Kennadi Johnson	Arcadia	PSU-Harrisburg	D3	8%	4%	-17.6	–	+0.71
Rebekka Hjalmarsdottir	St. Joseph's (NY)	Edinboro	D2	0%	–	+18.9	12%	+0.59
Emine Ulcay	Nichols	NJIT	D1	–	–	+30.7	12%	+0.59
Hannah Custer	Lebanon Val	Richmond	D1	–	–	+51.2	12%	+0.58
Madison Yanka	Wilmington	Tiffin	D2	0%	–	+15.6	12%	+0.58
Sophia Lyder	St. Joseph's (NY)	Lees-McRae	D2	–	–	+10.6	12%	+0.56
Makayla Bird	Mt. St. Mary	Eckerd	D2	0%	–	+28.2	12%	+0.55
Emiyah Cobb	Webster	SIU Edwardsville	D1	4%	–	+24.3	11%	+0.52
Paige Fourtin	Eastern Connecticut	Mercy	D2	2%	–	+13.3	11%	+0.52
Payton Morgan	UW-Oshkosh	Minnesota State (Mankato)	D2	1%	–	+49.9	11%	+0.51
Rylee Webb	Webster	Quincy	D2	–	–	+13.1	11%	+0.51
Lily Ervin	Greensboro	Mount Olive	D2	0%	–	-5.8	10%	+0.50
Elyse Wendler	UW-Platteville	UW-Parkside	D2	1%	–	+28.1	10%	+0.49
Olivia Hoerl	UW-La Crosse	UW-River Falls	D3	2%	4%	+16.0	–	+0.49
Nicole Parks	Nichols	Post	D2	7%	–	+2.3	10%	+0.49
Nickyia Daniel	Berry	Young Harris	D2	1%	–	+13.0	10%	+0.48
Alyssa Goode	Simpson (IA)	Biola	D2	0%	–	+15.7	10%	+0.48
Lainie Harrington	Chatham	Edinboro	D2	0%	–	+18.9	10%	+0.47
Kay Edwards	St. Thomas (TX)	Young Harris	D2	–	–	+13.0	10%	+0.47
Justice Sheppard	Carlow	Queens (NY)	D2	0%	–	-9.2	10%	+0.46
Armani Owens	Whittier	Mt. San Antonio College	CC	–	–	+49.7	10%	+0.46
Tiffany Newsome	Centenary (NJ)	Queens (NY)	D2	4%	–	-9.2	10%	+0.45
Ainsley Anderson	Lynchburg	Lander	D2	0%	–	+5.6	9%	+0.45
Michelle McGee	Chatham	Bluefield State	D2	10%	–	+12.6	9%	+0.44
Sydney Schradle	Northwestern (MN)	Luther	D3	2%	1%	+2.2	–	+0.44
Aliya Latif	Whittier	UC Merced	D2	–	–	+1.2	9%	+0.44
Sophia Toscano	Chatham	Wheeling	D2	0%	–	+11.4	9%	+0.43
Keyerra Moore	Salem (NC)	Brunswick Community College	CC	–	–	+5.4	9%	+0.43
Emily La Chapell	UW-Oshkosh	Belmont	D1	2%	–	+37.5	9%	+0.42
Quinn Godfrey	Occidental	UC Merced	D2	7%	–	+1.2	9%	+0.42
Olivia Corson	Illinois Wesleyan	McKendree	D2	2%	–	+18.6	9%	+0.41
Keara Duncan	Greensboro	Fayetteville Tech	CC	–	–	+12.5	8%	+0.41
Audrey Gorman	Guilford	Newberry	D2	0%	–	+3.4	8%	+0.41
Nevi Wilkey	Covenant	Tabor	NAIA	0%	–	+11.1	8%	+0.41
Amia Moore	Webster	Mineral Area College	CC	–	–	+28.9	8%	+0.41
Destiny Casey	Crown	Anoka-Ramsey Community College	CC	15%	–	+10.2	9%	+0.41
Nicole Burns	Brandeis	Colorado Christian	D2	2%	–	+5.5	9%	+0.41
Zora Jackson	Chatham	Albany State	D2	3%	–	+3.2	8%	+0.40
Charlize Giles	John Jay	SUNY Purchase	D3	4%	4%	-10.8	–	+0.40
Kam Gaines	Huntingdon	Gadsden State Community College	CC	–	–	+18.3	8%	+0.39
Zoey Deligianis	Baldwin Wallace	Tiffin	D2	1%	–	+15.6	8%	+0.39
Tiara Neal	McMurry	Cameron	D2	–	–	-1.3	8%	+0.39
Delaney Seaman	Alma	Mid Michigan College	CC	13%	–	+25.1	8%	+0.38
Kylie Fruehstorfer	Washington & Jefferson	Pitt-Johnstown	D2	1%	–	+9.0	8%	+0.38
Kaylee Buerman	Central (IA)	Augsburg	D3	4%	2%	-14.4	–	+0.38
Teeale Wells	Belhaven	Jones College	CC	7%	–	+24.0	8%	+0.38
Sophia Moore	Chatham	Point Park	D2	3%	–	-2.6	8%	+0.37
Jaya Johnson	St. Thomas (TX)	Panola College	CC	–	–	+28.3	8%	+0.37
Ella Hazelrigg	Baldwin Wallace	Wheeling	D2	0%	–	+11.4	8%	+0.37
Skylar Adams	Chatham	Shaw	D2	7%	–	-4.5	8%	+0.36
Mattison Bell	Millsaps	Pearl River Community College	CC	–	–	+32.0	8%	+0.36
Alexis Halley	Albion	Lamar Community College	CC	–	–	+27.0	8%	+0.36
Mariah Kerley	Adrian	Jackson College	CC	–	–	+19.8	8%	+0.36
Julissa Claxton	LaGrange	Jones College	CC	10%	–	+24.0	8%	+0.36
Hannah Bogdonovich	Luther	Iowa Central Community College	CC	–	–	+20.8	8%	+0.36
Claire Tobias	Chatham	Lansing Community College	CC	11%	–	+31.8	7%	+0.35
Sammy Velasquez	Occidental	Glendale Community College	CC	16%	–	+22.5	7%	+0.35
Kieonna Christmas	SUNY Cobleskill	Fulton-Montgomery Community College	CC	–	–	+13.1	7%	+0.35
Cloey Dopp	SUNY Cobleskill	Fulton-Montgomery Community College	CC	–	–	+13.1	7%	+0.35
Sha Cooper	SUNY Cobleskill	Fulton-Montgomery Community College	CC	–	–	+13.1	7%	+0.35
Taylor Addison	Chatham	Fort Valley State	D2	8%	–	-9.8	7%	+0.34
Erica Rodriguez	Randolph Col	Huntingdon	D3	3%	3%	-6.9	–	+0.34
Janiya Harrison	Greenville	Southeastern Illinois College	CC	–	–	–	7%	+0.34
Amari Barnes	Belhaven	Copiah-Lincoln Community College	CC	–	–	+15.1	7%	+0.34
Abigail Huskin	Lebanon Val	Bucks County Community College	CC	–	–	–	7%	+0.34
Dawn Roberson	St. Thomas (TX)	Ranger College	CC	2%	–	+18.2	7%	+0.32
Camaria Toles Frierson	Millsaps	Mississippi Gulf Coast Community College	CC	0%	–	+21.4	7%	+0.32
Brooklyn Burnett	Webster	John A. Logan College	CC	–	–	+9.9	7%	+0.32
Arianna Crimm	Belhaven	East Mississippi Community College	CC	–	–	+11.4	7%	+0.32
Cenaya Calhoun	Belhaven	East Mississippi Community College	CC	–	–	+11.4	7%	+0.32
Arianna Butler	Whittier	Cosumnes River College	CC	–	–	+13.1	7%	+0.32
Janessa Wallace	Webster	Carl Sandburg College	CC	–	–	+7.8	6%	+0.31
Miranda Morales	Occidental	Rio Hondo College	CC	–	–	+13.1	6%	+0.31
Kelsey Joseph	Belhaven	Holmes Community College	CC	11%	–	+9.1	6%	+0.31
Stella Havard	Belhaven	Holmes Community College	CC	4%	–	+9.1	6%	+0.31
Bianca Wyatt	Wilmington	Lincoln Trail College	CC	–	–	-8.1	6%	+0.30
Norah Walkup	Maryville	Chattanooga State Community College	CC	–	–	+13.4	6%	+0.30
Addison Price	Hendrix	Webster	D3	2%	2%	+1.3	–	+0.30
Taylor Johnson	Crown	Minn-Morris	D3	2%	1%	-3.0	–	+0.30
Layla Sweatte	Delaware Val	Northampton Community College	CC	13%	–	+2.1	6%	+0.30
Jayden Pilkington	Greenville	UHSP	NAIA	–	–	-8.1	6%	+0.30
Emma Owens	Spalding	Southwest Virginia Community College	CC	–	–	-1.0	6%	+0.29
Maliyah Maples	Covenant	Montreat	NAIA	0%	–	-14.7	6%	+0.29
Lusine Hagopian	Bridgewater St.	Connecticut College	D3	2%	2%	+7.6	–	+0.29
Makayla McNally	Augustana	Waubonsee Community College	CC	–	–	+9.0	6%	+0.28
Tierra Bargeman	St. Thomas (TX)	Labette Community College	CC	4%	–	+10.5	6%	+0.28
Jonqora Moore	St. Thomas (TX)	Labette Community College	CC	5%	–	+10.5	6%	+0.28
Marissa Garcia	Howard Payne	Western Texas College	CC	–	–	+2.6	6%	+0.28
Makayla Robertson	Belhaven	Mississippi Delta Community College	CC	–	–	+2.5	6%	+0.28
E'moni Finch	Capital	Siena Heights	NAIA	–	–	+6.5	6%	+0.28
Skylar Sweeney	Webster	Greenville	D3	3%	1%	-13.3	–	+0.27
Nakeria Coleman	Belhaven	Southwest Mississippi Community College	CC	2%	–	+0.7	6%	+0.27
Mady Smith	Belhaven	Southwest Mississippi Community College	CC	12%	–	+0.7	6%	+0.27
Laci Buchanan	Belhaven	Southwest Mississippi Community College	CC	9%	–	+0.7	6%	+0.27
Jessica Makayabo	McMurry	Miles Community College	CC	–	–	+9.8	6%	+0.27
Kiersten Haynes	Huntingdon	Tougaloo	NAIA	–	–	-10.9	5%	+0.26
Emily Mountain	Houghton	Washington & Jefferson	D3	1%	1%	+24.7	–	+0.26
Ava Hendrie	LaGrange	Agnes Scott	D3	8%	6%	-28.9	–	+0.26
Kehonia Bradley	Huntingdon	Reid State Community College	CC	5%	–	-13.3	5%	+0.25
Skyler Tinker	Thomas (ME)	Southern Maine Community College	CC	6%	–	-9.4	5%	+0.25
Jerzie Bryant	Howard Payne	Oklahoma City	NAIA	6%	–	-6.8	5%	+0.24
Racie Decker	Howard Payne	McMurry	D3	1%	1%	+11.4	–	+0.24
Ava Skladanowski	Roanoke	Brandeis	D3	1%	1%	+14.0	–	+0.24
Ava Bucci	Spalding	Kaskaskia College	CC	9%	–	-13.5	5%	+0.23
Allie Sampson	Webster	UHSP	NAIA	–	–	-8.1	5%	+0.23
Sierra Bush	Randolph Col	Patrick & Henry Community College	CC	–	–	-15.5	5%	+0.23
Mariah Van Ersvelde	Luther	Mount Mercy	NAIA	–	–	-7.8	5%	+0.23
Delma Salazar	Illinois Col	Spoon River College	CC	–	–	-11.5	5%	+0.22
Grace Baumann	SUNY Cobleskill	Hudson Valley Community College	CC	–	–	-14.8	5%	+0.22
Bariona Parker	St. Thomas (TX)	Southeast Arkansas College	CC	–	–	-6.6	4%	+0.21
Dasha Yeltysheva	Lakeland	Marian	D3	4%	4%	-25.7	–	+0.21
Emaree Gober	Spalding	Oakland City	NAIA	–	–	-20.6	4%	+0.20
Aleica Donaldson	Huntingdon	Point	NAIA	–	–	-26.7	4%	+0.19
Elly Sexton	Adrian	Kirtland Community College	CC	12%	–	-17.1	4%	+0.19
Julianna Penn	St. Thomas (TX)	Graceland	NAIA	–	–	-12.0	4%	+0.18
Meghanne Freehill	UW-Stout	William Penn	NAIA	–	–	-9.5	4%	+0.18
Mya Mewborn	Guilford	Richard Bland College	CC	–	–	-7.2	4%	+0.18
Mckenna Sinon	Millsaps	Mobile	NAIA	7%	–	-8.1	4%	+0.18
Mikayla Saas	Augustana	McHenry County College	CC	12%	–	-12.9	4%	+0.18
Melissa McCoy	Manchester	Calumet	NAIA	–	–	-23.5	4%	+0.17
Yzabella Tafoya	Lyon	Dallas Univ	D3	2%	2%	-18.7	–	+0.17
Maya Kasuboski	Marian	Dominican	D3	2%	1%	-13.7	–	+0.16
Precious Candler	St. Thomas (TX)	Arlington Baptist	NCCAA	–	–	-17.6	3%	+0.15
Bella Molnar	John Carroll	Mt. Union	D3	0%	1%	+19.4	–	+0.11
Annie Sale	George Fox	Webster	D3	0%	0%	+1.3	–	+0.07
Jailyn Garvin-Martin	Westfield St.	Nichols	D3	0%	1%	-5.9	–	+0.07
Maddie Teal	Nichols	Anna Maria	D3	1%	0%	-14.7	–	+0.06
Kaydence Menchaca	Southwestern	Concordia (TX)	D3	0%	0%	-5.3	–	+0.05
Aleyna Sherman	Oglethorpe	Webster	D3	–	–	–	–	+0.00
Ame'lle Passee-Diallo	Albright	Mary Baldwin	D3	–	–	–	–	+0.00
Mary McClintock	Dominican	Wheaton (MA)	D3	–	–	–	–	+0.00
Abigail Platt	Alfred	Morrisville St.	D3	–	–	–	–	+0.00
Kathryn Strong	Belhaven	East Texas Baptist	D3	–	–	–	–	+0.00
Kiara Gauthier	Nichols	Anna Maria	D3	0%	0%	-14.7	–	+0.00
Sharayah Scott-Cummins	Nichols	Anna Maria	D3	–	–	–	–	+0.00
Emma Crow	Heidelberg	Otterbein	D3	0%	0%	+26.9	–	+0.00

Method

The model is a ridge regression with 10 features, fitted on 410 teams. 2024-25 inputs predict 2025-26 adjEm. The same inputs from 2025-26 produce the 2026-27 projection.

Ten-fold cross-validation picks the penalty. It also drops any feature that does not lower the out-of-fold error. The prior margin, the three transfer features, and the coaching change stay in by design.

Out-of-fold root mean square error (RMSE) is 8.15 points of adjEm. The baseline, last season's margin shrunk toward the mean, scores 9.50 (+1.35). In-sample R² is 0.80.

Feature	Effect per 1 SD	Mean	SD	Status
Prior adjEm	+16.99	0.823	20.612	Kept
Returning minutes share	-4.30	0.582	0.185	Kept
Returning points share	+7.28	0.574	0.208	Kept
Incoming D3 transfer minutes share	+0.82	0.016	0.050	Kept
Incoming D3 transfer minutes share times origin adjEm	+0.51	-0.132	1.129	Kept
Incoming non-D3 transfers, expected minutes share	+0.25	0.023	0.053	Kept
New head coach	-0.69	0.137	0.343	Kept
Returning assists share	+1.98	0.576	0.203	Kept
Points share lost times prior adjEm	-1.95	0.673	10.130	Kept
All-Americans departed, weighted by team	0.00	–	–	Capped at zero
All-region players departed, weighted by team	–	–	–	Dropped

Returning production counts for more on a strong team. Returning every minute, point, and assist instead of half is worth +13.6 points of adjEm for a team that finished at +30, +10.7 for a team at 0, and +7.8 for a team at -30. The lost-production term sets that slope: it multiplies the share of scoring that left by the prior adjEm.

The split of the projected margin between offense and defense is an assumption. 2024-25 has no adjO or adjD, so the change in margin is applied half to each side on top of the 2025-26 values.

Tempo is a one-variable regression: adjT = -2.2 + 1.03 times the prior adjT.

Barthag is adjO^k divided by adjO^k plus adjD^k. The exponent k = 4.7 is the least-squares fit to 2025-26 win percentage over 413 teams. Torvik uses 11.5 for Division I men.

Dropped by cross-validation: region_lost.

Star departures are counted: postseason All-Americans and all-region players from 2025-26 who are not on the 2026-27 roster. On the 2024-25 to 2025-26 pair the fitted effect was positive, because teams that lost a star beat the turnover-only projection on average.

A departing star cannot be a bonus, so that coefficient is capped at zero. The departure is priced through the points, assists, and lost-production terms.